ZAMFARA 2019: WHO THE CAP FITS? - Salis Moriki

By Salis Muhammad Moriki

Although, the door for political activities or campaigns is not yet open, but the politicking is gradually and rapidly going on and gathering momentum. Each prospective candidate and his loyalists or canvassers are busy indirectly and systematically paving ways on how their mentors would emerge successful in the primary election and eventually the executive governor of my state.

This analysis is only for the purpose of refreshing the brains of my people on who may likely contest and govern their resources in the next few years. More over, it is my assumption, not necessarily all those mentioned as prospective candidates must contest or have the intent to do so. Nothing more than this.

I have critically looked into the scenario and brought out eight people out of many, who, from my observations and assumption, may likely be the major contenders when the whistle has been finally blown.

IBRAHIM MUHAMMAD WAKKALA

This is the current deputy governor of the state. Though, he didn't come out in the open and declare his intention, but all the available happenings and politicking from his kinsmen are portraying him as one of those seeking for the throne.

Wakkala has been in the corridor of power in the state since 1999 except during the four year tenure of Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi. He was a commissioner for religious affairs during Yarima and caretaker chairman of ANPP before he was elected deputy governor in 2011. He's Islamically knowledgeable and said to have the backing of the state's political godfather, former governor and now Senator Ahmad Sani Yarima.

He's from the central zone, Gusau, very calm and reserved. It is not certain if he enjoys the support of the governor as the body language of the governor never shakes towards that angle, especially as his support for the deputy depends on his wish whether to remain relevant in the political affairs of the state after 2019 or not, because the deputy governor is 100% loyal to Ahmad Sani Yarima. If he succeeds, it would be an extension of Ahmad Sani Yarima administration, that's he would rule by proxy, according to some observers.

If the state maintains its political tradition, the deputy governor has upper hands over the rest of the candidates. But if he doesn't enjoy the support of the governor, his chance is hanging on the air.

MAHMUD ALIYU SHINKAFI

Popularly known as MAS. He's the most experienced among all the candidates. He was a deputy governor for eight years and governor for four years. Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi is a brother to former NSA boss and former presidential aspirant, Late Umaru Shinkafi.

He succeeded Yarima as the second democratically elected governor in the state after he deputised him for good eight years as mentioned above. There was misunderstanding between the two which led him to decamp from ANPP to PDP with all his cabinet members, Local Governments chairmen, state and federal houses of assembly members, leaving very few of them. This generated a lot of political instability in the state between his government and his former boss. Unfortunately, he was toppled by his former boss in 2011 election after a tensed political atmosphere.

Personally, he's very gentle, kind, easy going and absolutely simple. He commands so much respect and sympathy from among the electorates in the state. It is said that most of the votes won by PDP in the 2015 general elections was his influence. It is still not clear who masterminded his decampment to APC. While some said he personally decided to come back to his original base, others are of the opinion that it was influenced by the power bloc in the state who are looking for soft landing after leaving office since he has no interest on probing anything that has to do with passed governments going by what happened when he was the governor.

Mahmood Shinkafi is not that rich. He was accused of being so loose during his tenure, to the extent some very few hijacked the government and had field days. They enriched themselves as the de factor governors. Party chairman Ibrahim Mallaha and Chief of Staff Musa Zubairu Nasarawan Mailayi were the most influential government functionaries during his time as the governor, more powerful than even the governor himself, according to some analysts.

If primary election would be free and fair, free of money influence, and the reason above happens to be true, Mahmood Aliyu Shinkafi may likely get the ticket.

SENATOR TIJJANI YAHAYA KAURA

The 58 years old senator from Zamfara North. He was a local government chairman in KAURA local government, Federal commissioner, secretary to Zamfara state government and a state minister for foreign affairs during late Umaru 'Yar'adua tenure, and now Vice Chairman Senate committee on tertiary institutions and TETFUND. He owns a masters degree from Ahmadu Bello University Zaria.

He was a PDP member during all the struggles in 2011, but decamped to APC after some politicking and made secretary to state government after the former SSG, Hassan Atto Bungudu was enthroned as the Emir of Bungudu. He is among the people tagged as "Gen. Ali Gusau boys". It is even said he was the one masterminded his crossing to APC.

Senator Tijjani Yahaya KAURA is said to be one of the most experienced among the likely candidates. He is also one of the best senators from, not only Zamfara state, but in the north as a whole, based on the number of bills he sponsored in the red carpet chamber.

He enjoys the support of some prominent and influential Zamfara elders as a result of his loyalty and respect to them. He's calm, non vindictive and soft minded person. If he succeeds and assumes the mantle of leadership, he may be so much loyal to powers that may be.

He may not have enough money to influence the delegates, but he may attract the supports of those powers and the sympathy of some delegates.

SENATOR KABIRU GARBA MARAFA

The 57 year old two term Senator represents Zamfara Central. He was a former commissioner in the Mahmood Aliyu Shinkafi government. After the clash between the government cabal who prevented him from contesting Zamfara central senatorial election under PDP, he was cajoled by Yarima to come and contest on the platform of ANPP then, which he did and won in 2011.

He has an HND from the prestigious Kaduna Polytechnic, former commissioner and now a Senator representing Zamfara central. He's also the chairman Senate committee on downstream sector. Senator Kabiru Marafa is too vocal, fearless and also accused for assuming too much air. He enjoyed the support of, not only Zamfara central, but the north in general when they formed the Unity Forum and fought the Senate President, Bukalo Saraki in the Senate. Unfortunately, he later politically sumersaulted when the Senate president silenced him with a juicy committee chairmanship. Since then, one hardly hears him.
He is relatively rich and politically balanced to face the delegates, but from his "self independent attitude", the cabal and the power bloc would definitely go against him. This may be his obstacle. If he is to contest, he may struggle with the political jingoists that may not like the likes of Marafa to succeed them because of his independent attitude.

HONOURABLE BELLO MUHAMMAD MATAWALLE

He's one of the political bigwigs in the state. The 58 year old former commissioner and member House of Representatives, he was the chairman House committee on public safety and intelligence.

He was one of the only three legislators who didn't decamp to PDP from ANPP during Mahmood Shinkafi era before things felt apart with his former boss, Senator Ahmad Sani Yarima.

He is financially bouyant and ready to use what he has in order to get what he wants. He commands political followership, especially from his base even though hails from same zone with his archrival, Yarima. He is politically relevant and influential. He easily wins most of the politicians via his ever ready gifts and financial bonanza.

With all the aforementioned qualities, he is being regarded by even his supporters as too arrogant and high headedness.

If he contests, with the exit of Mahmood Aliyu Shinkafi from the party, no doubt, he would find it very easy to clinch the ticket of his party, except if the party leaders decide otherwise.

PROFESSOR ABDULLAHI MUHAMMAD SHINKAFI

A Professor of forestry from DanFodio University. He was a former commissioner for religious affairs before his elevation to the rank of SSG. He's the most educated among all the prospective candidates, but he's politically novice.

He has a good rappo with the executive governor, and commands respect from a lot of people in the state. But the incidence or allegation of financial misappropriation during the recently meningitis disaster almost dented his reputation. If he's to contest as the rumour goes, he has to be guided and supported by the politicians and his godfathers.

SAGIR HAMIDU

He was a former director of special duties in the federal capital territory administration. He came into limelight and politics immediately after the 2011 elections. He contested the governorship primary election under PDP in the last election, but due what transpired during that exercise, he resolved to decamp to ruling party.

Sagir Hamidu is not as politically experienced as the likes of MAS, Matawalle and other notable politicians mentioned above, but he's financially bouyant to make an impact.

If he decides to contest this time around, he has to work hard to establish his structure in his party in order to be able to rub shoulder with the old and more experienced politicians in the race.

HON. IBRAHIM SHEHU BAKAUYE

Born 1969 to the family of renown business man, Late Shehu Bakauye. A former commissioner and House of representatives member. He's an engineer by profession. He was formerly with ANPP later decamped to PDP.

Ibrahim Shehu Bakauye is one of the prominent politicians from the PDP who have followership from among his party loyalists.
The man is relatively rich and politically relevant. If he declares his interest to contest on PDP platform, it would be a clash of the titans between him and Matawalle as each can afford the price of the delegates.

By Salis Muhammad Moriki