Yakub Aliyu
There is nothing as dangerous and counterproductive to a nation than playing politics with its economy. That is exactly the game that Nigerians seem to be engaged in these days.
Let the figures speak for themselves, and then we can have the luxury of analysis.
Nigeria: Real Sectoral GDP Growth after Rebasing 2011-2015
AGRICULTURE
MINING &QUARRYING
MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION
TRADE
ARTS/ENTERTAINMENT/RECREATION
FINANCE AND INSURANCE
REAL ESTATE
GDP Growth
Source: Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Abuja, various years.
Bottom line:
1) Beneath the facade of Nigeria being the largest economy in Africa or one of the fastest growing economies in the world (as propagated by Jonathan and his economic team) lies a poorly performing and structurally deteriorating economy. In reality, GDP growth declined from 4.21% in 2011 to 2.29% in 2015.
2) With the exception of the trade sector, all sectors of the Nigeria economy were fast on the decline. It would not be wrong, therefore, to suggest that Jonathan and his economic team left the economy structurally worse off than they met it in 2011.
3) It is also evident that by 2015, the Nigerian economy was headed for a full blown recession and collapse. This can be clearly seen in the performance of the manufacturing sector, which saw its growth tumbling from a healthy positive growth rate (13%) in 2011 to negative (-1.46%) growth by 2015.
4) Note that the delay in manifestation of the recession which was already signalled by the poor performance of the manufacturing sector was as a result of two factors, namely: (a) the unsustainable defence of the Naira exchange rate (made possible by the high oil prices) and (b) the massive importation of everything from food to tooth pick (which moderated the inflationary pressures).
5) Clearly, despite the rebasing of the national accounts data, which put the Nigerian GDP at about $514 billion in 2013, the structure of the economy remained at the rudimentary level, with peasant agriculture being the major source of economic activity. There was not one single commitment on the part of the Jonathan and his economic team to take advantage of high oil prices (average $110 per barrel) to diversify the economy towards agriculture and manufacturing, the biggest generators of jobs. In fact, even more worrisome, was the fact that the oil sector itself was poorly managed such that the oil industry was not diversified (downstream activities most especially), and hence experienced negative growth rates through out the Jonathan era.
(6) Finally, we must say with all sense of responsibility that no government in this world, even with the best of macroeconomics can reverse the above structural deterioration of the Nigerian in a matter of two years.
Moreover, we all know that macroeconomics was hardly salutary: huge deficits, high debts, and other outstanding obligations, slowed FDI inflow and capital flight, as well as the biggest monsters: corruption, insecurity, and unemployment. Now, the battle is to get the macroeconomics right and secure the societal space before the administration could focus on the major task of reversing economic decline and generating prosperity for the citizens.
May PMB/PYO succeed.
There is nothing as dangerous and counterproductive to a nation than playing politics with its economy. That is exactly the game that Nigerians seem to be engaged in these days.
Let the figures speak for themselves, and then we can have the luxury of analysis.
Nigeria: Real Sectoral GDP Growth after Rebasing 2011-2015
AGRICULTURE
- 2011- 6.7%2
- 015- 3.72%
MINING &QUARRYING
- 2011- (-4.78%)2
- 015- (-5.27%)
MANUFACTURING
- 2011- 13.46%2
- 015- (-1.46)
CONSTRUCTION
- 2011- 9.44%2
- 015- 4.35%
TRADE
- 2011- 2.21%2
- 015- 5.14%
ARTS/ENTERTAINMENT/RECREATION
- 2011- 27.36%2
- 015- 9.40%
FINANCE AND INSURANCE
- 2011- 21.02%2
- 015- 7.12%
REAL ESTATE
- 2011- 5.65%2
- 015- 2.11%
GDP Growth
- 2011- 4.21%2
- 015- 2.29%
Source: Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Abuja, various years.
Bottom line:
1) Beneath the facade of Nigeria being the largest economy in Africa or one of the fastest growing economies in the world (as propagated by Jonathan and his economic team) lies a poorly performing and structurally deteriorating economy. In reality, GDP growth declined from 4.21% in 2011 to 2.29% in 2015.
2) With the exception of the trade sector, all sectors of the Nigeria economy were fast on the decline. It would not be wrong, therefore, to suggest that Jonathan and his economic team left the economy structurally worse off than they met it in 2011.
3) It is also evident that by 2015, the Nigerian economy was headed for a full blown recession and collapse. This can be clearly seen in the performance of the manufacturing sector, which saw its growth tumbling from a healthy positive growth rate (13%) in 2011 to negative (-1.46%) growth by 2015.
4) Note that the delay in manifestation of the recession which was already signalled by the poor performance of the manufacturing sector was as a result of two factors, namely: (a) the unsustainable defence of the Naira exchange rate (made possible by the high oil prices) and (b) the massive importation of everything from food to tooth pick (which moderated the inflationary pressures).
5) Clearly, despite the rebasing of the national accounts data, which put the Nigerian GDP at about $514 billion in 2013, the structure of the economy remained at the rudimentary level, with peasant agriculture being the major source of economic activity. There was not one single commitment on the part of the Jonathan and his economic team to take advantage of high oil prices (average $110 per barrel) to diversify the economy towards agriculture and manufacturing, the biggest generators of jobs. In fact, even more worrisome, was the fact that the oil sector itself was poorly managed such that the oil industry was not diversified (downstream activities most especially), and hence experienced negative growth rates through out the Jonathan era.
(6) Finally, we must say with all sense of responsibility that no government in this world, even with the best of macroeconomics can reverse the above structural deterioration of the Nigerian in a matter of two years.
Moreover, we all know that macroeconomics was hardly salutary: huge deficits, high debts, and other outstanding obligations, slowed FDI inflow and capital flight, as well as the biggest monsters: corruption, insecurity, and unemployment. Now, the battle is to get the macroeconomics right and secure the societal space before the administration could focus on the major task of reversing economic decline and generating prosperity for the citizens.
May PMB/PYO succeed.
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